China's FX reserves fall 1.11% to $3,400.3bn at end-September

China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,400.3 billion at the end of September 2026, down $38.1 billion from the end of August, a decline of 1.11%, according to statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported by Xinhua and China News Service. Earlier in the morning, CLS, Yicai, 36Kr and Jiemian had reported a central bank data figure of $3,400.251 billion for the end of September; the documents do not explain the difference between the precise and rounded figures. [ 1 , 2 , 4 , 5 , 7 , 9 ]

SAFE said the decline came amid the global macroeconomic environment and the monetary policies of major economies: the dollar index rose and major global financial asset prices fell overall, and exchange-rate translation and asset price changes together pushed the monthly reserve scale down. The regulator also said China's economy is running generally steadily, with new growth momentum and an improving structure, which supports keeping the reserve scale basically stable. [ 5 , 6 ]

Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, told Jiemian that the US Federal Reserve launched its first rate rise of the year in September, lifting the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, with the dot plot pointing to one more increase this year, and that hawkish remarks by Warsh reinforced expectations of consecutive increases. He cited tightening Middle East tensions that pushed oil above $100, stronger-than-expected US PMI data and hawkish Fed officials as factors that further raised rate expectations, leading to a selloff in global bonds, rising yields and a higher dollar index. [ 6 ]

Looking ahead, Wen said exports should remain resilient and anchor the balance of payments, pointing to high global AI capital expenditure and strong demand for chips, servers and related products. He also said China and the United States reached a framework in September for reciprocal tariff cuts on $30 billion of goods, with more than 90% of products to be exempted from additional tariffs and restored to most-favoured-nation rates, adding that the US tariff-cut goods are concentrated in consumer items such as toys, home appliances, baby products, kitchen and bath goods and holiday gifts. [ 6 ]

Zhao Wei, chief economist at Shenwan Hongyuan, told Jiemian that exports are likely to stay resilient after September, supported mainly by AI and consumer goods, with the AI-related export segment possibly maintaining high growth, especially in prices. He said consumer exports may also hold up as supply substitution takes effect and because tariffs have delayed the US import cycle, a pattern he said could run for more than half a year under inventory-cycle rules. [ 6 ]

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Gold Credit, told Jiemian that imports remain supported on several fronts: chip imports should keep growing at a high rate in the near term, and while renewed Middle East tensions may affect September crude import volumes, import value growth could accelerate on higher international crude prices. He added that weather disruptions in September had faded. [ 6 ]

Jiemian also noted policy steps supporting cross-border flows: from September 14, multinational companies' domestic and foreign currency cross-border fund centralised operations were implemented nationwide, and the People's Bank of China held a symposium with foreign financial institutions in September, saying it would steadily expand two-way opening of financial markets, improve cross-border payment services and facilitate international use of the renminbi. Wen said these measures help raise the appeal of renminbi assets to international investors. [ 6 ]