WTO raises 2026 goods trade growth forecast to 3.9% on AI investment
In short
The World Trade Organization on 8 October raised its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, up from 1.9% in March, citing supply chain adjustments and strong investment in artificial intelligence. It cut its 2026 forecast for services trade growth to 3.3% from 4.8%, citing the impact of the war in the Middle East on transport and international travel.
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The World Trade Organization on 8 October released its latest global trade outlook report, raising its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, up from the 1.9% it forecast in March, Xinhua reported from Geneva. The report attributed the upgrade to supply chain adjustments and strong investment in artificial intelligence. It expects goods trade to grow 4.1% in 2027. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
The outlook for services trade was weaker. The WTO expects global services trade to grow 3.3% in 2026, below the 4.8% it forecast in March, because of the impact of the war in the Middle East on transport and international travel. Services trade is forecast to grow 6.4% in 2027. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
According to the report, global goods trade grew 3.5% in the first half of this year, better than expected, which it said showed that supply chains were able to cope with the shocks the war in the Middle East caused to energy, fertiliser and shipping markets. Demand related to AI was strong: trade in AI-related goods such as semiconductors and servers rose 67% year on year, a faster pace than in 2024 and 2025. [ 2 , 4 ]
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that in the face of shocks, an integrated world economy and the rules-based trading system had given economies flexibility, allowing essential goods to keep flowing to the businesses and households that need them. She also said that not all economies are able to seize new opportunities such as AI, and that the rules-based trading system must continue to withstand shocks and close gaps so that those opportunities can be shared. [ 2 , 4 ]
CLS and 36Kr carried the Xinhua report; the 36Kr version included the forecasts and the Director-General's remark on flexibility. Yicai led with the 3.9% figure, said AI investment was a boost, and said global trade had shown better-than-expected resilience in the first half of 2026. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Why it matters
The report says goods trade has held up better than expected despite the war in the Middle East, with trade in AI-related goods such as semiconductors and servers up 67% year on year. Services trade, by contrast, is expected to grow more slowly than the WTO forecast in March. The Director-General warned that not all economies can seize new opportunities such as AI.
Key facts
- The WTO released its latest global trade outlook report on 8 October. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Global goods trade is forecast to grow 3.9% in 2026, up from the 1.9% forecast in March. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The WTO attributed the upgrade to supply chain adjustments and strong investment in artificial intelligence. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Goods trade is expected to grow 4.1% in 2027. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Global services trade is forecast to grow 3.3% in 2026, below the 4.8% forecast in March, and 6.4% in 2027. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Global goods trade grew 3.5% in the first half of the year, better than expected. [ 2 , 4 ]
- Trade in AI-related goods such as semiconductors and servers rose 67% year on year. [ 2 , 4 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The WTO raised its 2026 global goods trade growth forecast to 3.9% from 1.9% in March. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Strong investment in artificial intelligence was cited as a reason for the upgrade. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The 2026 services trade growth forecast was cut to 3.3% from 4.8%, with 6.4% growth expected in 2027. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Goods trade is expected to grow 4.1% in 2027. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Trade in AI-related goods such as semiconductors and servers rose 67% year on year. [ 2 , 4 ]
Still unclear
- Which economies are unable to seize opportunities such as AI. The Director-General's remark as reported does not name any economies.