Saudi Arabia, Yemen plan Houthi offensive; 100,000 troops possible
In short
Saudi Arabia and Yemen are preparing a large-scale offensive against Houthi forces that control the Red Sea entrance, with more than 100,000 Yemeni troops potentially mobilised, according to Reuters reporting carried by Hankook Ilbo. Dong-A Ilbo, citing AFP and Reuters, reported that Saudi and Yemeni government forces struck Houthi-held Sanaa on Oct 4 and could open a ground and air campaign within days; the Houthis said they hit Aramco refinery and other “sensitive targets”. Sources gave widely differing start dates, from within a week to after the US midterm elections.
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Saudi Arabia and Yemen are preparing a large-scale offensive against Houthi forces that control the Red Sea entrance, with more than 100,000 Yemeni troops potentially mobilised, Reuters reported on Oct 2, according to Hankook Ilbo. Dong-A Ilbo, citing AFP and Reuters, reported on Oct 5 that a major ground and air campaign could begin within days, and Seoul Shinmun described the offensive as being on a countdown. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Citing multiple sources, the Reuters report said the two countries are weighing strategies ranging from an advance on the Red Sea coast to multi-front surprise attacks. The Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea gateway held by the Houthis, is considered the most important target, and simultaneous pushes against the Houthis in Al Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al Jawf have also been discussed, it said. [ 1 ]
The report said sources gave varying timings for the start, from within a week to after the US midterm elections early next month. Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told Reuters the offensive would be concentrated in a narrow area and clearly smaller than the 2015 campaign Saudi Arabia led at the head of an Arab coalition. A 2022 agreement between the warring parties brought a ceasefire, but fighting resumed this year after Houthi forces advanced towards the Red Sea, according to the report. [ 1 ]
The United States, Pakistan and other states are expected to support Saudi Arabia and Yemen, the report said. It said sources stated that Pakistani military advisers are already on the ground assisting Yemeni forces, and that Pakistan has deployed 30,000 to 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to help defend its border and intercept drones and missiles. France has said it will send defence systems and personnel to protect the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Seoul Shinmun's headline said Turkey and Pakistan had also supplied weapons, but no document gives details of Turkish supplies. [ 1 , 2 ]
Dong-A Ilbo reported that Saudi and Yemeni government forces carried out large-scale airstrikes on Houthi-held Sanaa on Oct 4, and that at least five explosions were heard in the city on Oct 3, with two fighter jets seen firing missiles. Yemeni government forces said the strikes targeted key Houthi targets in Sanaa without naming them, the newspaper said. The Houthis claimed they had hit “sensitive targets” including refineries of Saudi state energy company Aramco, and said Saudi Arabia carried out 26 attacks on the capital. [ 3 ]
Reuters said the success of the offensive would depend on ground combat, and that protecting oil facilities and other infrastructure from Houthi drone and missile attacks is a key task for Saudi Arabia. Dong-A Ilbo reported concern that the escalating Saudi-Houthi clashes, together with the Iran war it says has been under way since February, could further raise tensions in the Middle East. [ 1 , 3 ]
Why it matters
The documents place the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea gateway held by the Houthis, at the centre of the planned operation, and Reuters said Saudi Arabia's key task is protecting oil facilities and other infrastructure from Houthi drone and missile attacks. Dong-A Ilbo reported concerns that the escalating Saudi-Houthi clashes, together with the Iran war it says has been under way since February, could further raise Middle East tensions. Both points imply consequences well beyond the immediate front.
Key facts
- Reuters reported on Oct 2 that Saudi Arabia and Yemen are planning a large-scale offensive against Houthi forces that control the Red Sea entrance, according to Hankook Ilbo. [ 1 ]
- Sources cited by Reuters said Yemen could mobilise more than 100,000 troops depending on the scale of the operation. [ 1 , 3 ]
- The Bab el-Mandeb strait is described as the most important target, with simultaneous pushes in Al Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al Jawf also discussed. [ 1 ]
- Sources gave start dates ranging from within a week to after the US midterm elections early next month. [ 1 ]
- Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told Reuters the offensive would be concentrated in a narrow area and clearly smaller than Saudi Arabia's 2015 campaign. [ 1 ]
- Pakistani military advisers are already on the ground assisting Yemeni forces, and Pakistan has deployed 30,000 to 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia for border defence and drone and missile interception, sources told Reuters. [ 1 ]
- France has said it will send defence systems and troops to protect the Red Sea port of Yanbu. [ 1 ]
- Dong-A Ilbo reported that Saudi and Yemeni government forces struck Houthi-held Sanaa on Oct 4, and that the Houthis claimed to have hit Aramco refinery and other “sensitive targets”. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- When the offensive will begin. Reuters sources gave a range from within a week to after the US midterm elections, and no date is set in the documents.
- The exact number of troops to be deployed. The 100,000-plus figure comes from unnamed sources cited by Reuters and is described as dependent on the scale of the operation.
- Turkey's role in the offensive. Seoul Shinmun's headline says Turkey and Pakistan also supplied weapons, but no document gives details; Hankook Ilbo's Reuters-based account names Pakistan and France, not Turkey.
- Whether the Houthi account of striking Aramco refinery and other “sensitive targets” is accurate. It is a Houthi claim reported by Dong-A Ilbo and is not independently confirmed in the documents.
- Casualties or damage from the airstrikes on Sanaa. No figures are given in the documents.
- Yemeni government forces said airstrikes were carried out against key Houthi targets in Sanaa, the Houthi-held capital, according to Dong-A Ilbo's account of AFP and Reuters reporting. Reported by a single source so far
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Hankook Ilbo publishes a Reuters-sourced report that Saudi Arabia and Yemen are planning a large-scale offensive against Houthi forces, with more than 100,000 Yemeni troops possibly mobilised. [ 1 ]
- Seoul Shinmun reports the offensive is in a countdown stage, with its headline saying Turkey and Pakistan have also supplied weapons. [ 2 ]
- Dong-A Ilbo reports, citing AFP and Reuters, that Saudi and Yemeni government forces struck Houthi-held Sanaa on Oct 4 and could launch a ground and air campaign mobilising more than 100,000 troops within days. [ 3 ]