CME FedWatch: odds of Fed holding rates in October rise to 80.6%
In short
The probability that the US Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in October rose to 80.6% on October 8, from 77.9% on October 5, according to CME's FedWatch tool as reported by CLS, Jiemian and 36Kr. The tool put the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike by October at 19.4%, and by December gave a 64.1% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and 14.2% for 50 basis points.
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The probability that the US Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at its October meeting rose to 80.6% on October 8, according to CME's FedWatch tool, CLS reported; Jiemian and 36Kr carried the same figures. The tool put the chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike by October at 19.4%. For December, it showed a 21.7% probability of no change, 64.1% for a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and 14.2% for a 50-basis-point hike. [ 5 , 6 , 7 ]
Earlier in the week the October hold probability stood at 77.9% on October 5, 77.3% on October 6 and 79.5% on October 7, according to CLS, with Jiemian reporting the October 6 figures as well. Over the same period the December no-change probability rose from 12.8% to 21.7%, while the 25-basis-point hike probability for December moved between 64.1% and 68.7%. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
Why it matters
The figures, carried daily by Chinese business outlets, track how markets price the next Federal Reserve decisions. The rising probability of no change in October and the shift in December pricing show expectations moving over the week.
Key facts
- On October 8, CME FedWatch put the probability of the Fed holding rates in October at 80.6% and of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike at 19.4%. [ 5 , 6 , 7 ]
- For December, the October 8 figures were 21.7% for no change, 64.1% for a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and 14.2% for a 50-basis-point hike. [ 5 , 6 , 7 ]
- On October 5 the probability of an October hold was 77.9%, with 22.1% for a 25-basis-point hike. [ 1 ]
- On October 6 the probability of an October hold was 77.3%, with 22.7% for a 25-basis-point hike. [ 2 , 3 ]
- On October 7 the probability of an October hold was 79.5%, with 20.5% for a 25-basis-point hike. [ 4 ]
- The probability of no change by December rose from 12.8% on October 5 to 21.7% on October 8. [ 1 , 5 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- CME FedWatch put the October hold probability at 80.6% on October 8, with 19.4% for a 25-basis-point hike. [ 5 , 6 , 7 ]
- CME FedWatch put the October hold probability at 77.3% on October 6, with 22.7% for a 25-basis-point hike. [ 2 , 3 ]
- December probabilities on October 8: 21.7% no change, 64.1% for a 25-basis-point hike, 14.2% for 50 basis points. [ 5 , 6 , 7 ]
Still unclear
- The October 5 and October 7 figures were reported by a single outlet. Only CLS carried the figures for those days.
- Jiemian's October 8 item is datelined 2026.10.07 while its text refers to October 8. The outlet's dateline and text differ on the date.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Oct 5: CLS reports a 77.9% probability of an October hold. [ 1 ]
- Oct 6: CLS reports the October hold probability at 77.3%; Jiemian carries the same figures at 09:52. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Oct 7: CLS reports the October hold probability at 79.5%. [ 4 ]
- Oct 8: CLS reports the October hold probability at 80.6%; 36Kr and Jiemian carry the figures at 07:20 and 07:52. [ 5 , 6 , 7 ]