Latvia election: PM Kulbergs' United List wins, set for 42 of 100 seats
Version 2: A third outlet added detail on Latvia's cost-of-living pressures, its defence budget path to 5 percent of GDP from 2027 and European assessments of the gap between defence budgets and fighting power; the election result itself is unchanged.
In short
Latvia's ruling centre-right United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, won the parliamentary election held on Oct. 3 and is set to take about 42 of the 100 seats in the Saeima, according to Yonhap and Newsis. Yonhap reported a vote share of 35.3 percent and Newsis 35.4 percent, roughly three times the party's previous result. Hankook Ilbo said the next government's task is to convert higher security spending into defence capability and industrial competitiveness while household costs rise.
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Latvia's centre-right United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, won the parliamentary election held on Oct. 3 and is expected to take about 42 of the 100 seats in the Saeima. Yonhap put the party's vote share at 35.3 percent and Newsis at 35.4 percent. Newsis framed the outcome as an expected continuation of a pro-Ukraine policy course. [ 1 , 2 ]
Yonhap, citing Reuters and AFP, said vote counting was nearly complete and described the seat figure as a projection, not a final result. It said the tally is about three times the party's previous result and the best performance by a single party since Latvia regained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Kulbergs said he was surprised by the scale of the victory. “The trust voters have given us is really great,” he said, adding that the outcome reflected public desire for change, direct communication and making the economy the country's top priority. [ 1 ]
Other parties also won seats, according to Yonhap: the populist Latvia First party took 17 and the pro-Russian Sovereignty Power party 14, while Kulbergs' current coalition partners, the anti-Russia National Alliance and the liberal-conservative New Unity, won 11 and 7 seats respectively — 60 in total if the three renew their alliance. Yonhap said the two parties that gained on Russia-leaning and populist platforms are expected to be left out of government. [ 1 ]
During the campaign Kulbergs called for pro-business policies and promised to repair state finances, to strengthen Latvia's drone capabilities and to keep defence spending at 5 percent of GDP, the highest level in NATO, Yonhap reported. It quoted him saying right after exit polls were released: “We do not cooperate with pro-Russian parties. It is our firm position that any economic relations with Russia weaken us and that Russia will exploit this.” Yonhap also reported that last month he resisted to the last a plan to remove two Russian billionaires from the European Union's sanctions list. [ 1 ]
Hankook Ilbo put the spending choices in context: Latvia's defence budget this year is 2.16 billion euros, or 4.73 percent of GDP, and an amended national defence financing law requires at least 5 percent of GDP from 2027, while the first phase of the Latvian section of the Rail Baltica rail project is estimated at 5.5 billion euros. At the same time, the outlet reported the government allocated 10 million euros to hospitals to settle treatment costs above the first-half plan, winter heating bills are forecast to rise 10 to 15 percent, fuel excise was cut temporarily until the end of the year, and an agricultural state of emergency runs until Jan. 10 next year after rain and flood damage. It said the 20th annual Baltic defence conference in Tallinn last month concluded that increased European defence budgets still leave a large gap between needs and actual fighting power, and argued the next government's task is to turn security spending into defence capability and industrial competitiveness — a shift the outlet said the Korea International Trade Association's Warsaw office is watching for partner and procurement opportunities. [ 3 ]
Latvia's previous coalition, led by Prime Minister Evika Silina, collapsed in May amid political fighting over the response to Ukrainian drones that entered Latvian airspace, and a new centre-right cabinet was formed, Yonhap reported. The country of about 1.9 million people is one of the European Union's poorest but has strongly backed Ukraine and taken a hard line toward neighbouring Russia; Yonhap said Russia has raised its threats this year, arguing that the three Baltic states deliberately opened their airspace to Ukrainian drones targeting its western oil export facilities, and that Latvia received four German Eurofighter jets to help defend its airspace during the election period. Hankook Ilbo recalled the 1989 “Baltic Way” human chain by some 2 million people in the three Baltic states and their 1991 independence and 2004 accession to the EU and NATO. [ 1 , 3 ]
Why it matters
Kulbergs campaigned on a hard line toward Russia, on strengthening Latvia's drone defences and on keeping defence spending at 5 percent of GDP, the highest level in NATO, so the result points to continuity in Latvia's support for Ukraine and in its airspace posture. Yonhap reported that the previous coalition collapsed in May over the response to Ukrainian drones entering Latvian airspace. Hankook Ilbo framed the central task of the next government as turning that security spending into defence capability and industrial competitiveness rather than choosing between security and welfare.
Key facts
- United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, won Latvia's parliamentary election and is expected to take about 42 of the 100 seats in the Saeima. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Yonhap reported the party's vote share at 35.3 percent and Newsis at 35.4 percent. [ 1 , 2 ]
- The election was held on Oct. 3 local time. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Yonhap said the seat count is about three times the party's previous result and the best performance by a single party since Latvia regained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. [ 1 ]
- According to Yonhap, the populist Latvia First party won 17 seats, the pro-Russian Sovereignty Power party 14, and Kulbergs' current coalition partners the National Alliance and New Unity 11 and 7 seats respectively. [ 1 ]
- Yonhap said Kulbergs pledged to keep defence spending at 5 percent of GDP, the highest in NATO, to strengthen Latvia's drone capabilities and to pursue pro-business policies while repairing state finances. [ 1 ]
- Hankook Ilbo reported Latvia's defence budget this year is 2.16 billion euros, or 4.73 percent of GDP, and that an amended national defence financing law requires at least 5 percent of GDP from 2027. [ 3 ]
- Hankook Ilbo reported the government allocated 10 million euros to hospitals to settle treatment costs above the first-half plan, that winter heating bills are forecast to rise 10 to 15 percent, that fuel excise was cut temporarily until the end of the year, and that an agricultural state of emergency runs until Jan. 10 next year after rain and flood damage. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, won Latvia's parliamentary election held on Oct. 3 and is expected to take about 42 of the 100 seats in the Saeima. [ 1 , 2 ]
- The party's vote share was reported at about 35 percent — 35.3 percent by Yonhap and 35.4 percent by Newsis. [ 1 , 2 ]
- The election was held on Oct. 3 local time. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Yonhap reported, citing Reuters and AFP, that vote counting was nearly complete and that the seat figure was a projection. [ 1 ]
- Yonhap reported the result is about three times the party's previous seat count and the best for a single party since Latvia regained independence in 1991. [ 1 ]
- According to Yonhap, Latvia First won 17 seats, Sovereignty Power 14, the National Alliance 11 and New Unity 7, which would give Kulbergs' three current partners 60 seats together. [ 1 ]
- Yonhap reported Kulbergs said he was surprised by the scale of the win and pledged pro-business policies, stronger drone capabilities and defence spending kept at 5 percent of GDP, the highest level in NATO. [ 1 ]
- Yonhap reported the previous coalition under Prime Minister Evika Silina collapsed in May over the response to Ukrainian drones entering Latvian airspace. [ 1 ]
Still unclear
- The final certified vote share and seat allocation. Yonhap said counting was nearly complete and presented the 42 seats as an expectation rather than a final result, and the two documents give slightly different vote shares of 35.3 percent and 35.4 percent.
- The composition of the next coalition. Yonhap said the two Russia-leaning and populist parties are expected to be excluded and that the three current partners would hold 60 seats if they renew their alliance, but no decision is reported.
- Reaction from Russia or from Latvia First, Sovereignty Power, the National Alliance or New Unity. None of the documents reports a response from Moscow or from the other parties.
- How the next government will pay for higher defence spending while household costs rise. Hankook Ilbo describes this as the next government's task and lists rising heating bills, hospital settlements and flood damage, but no decision or plan is reported; it also presents Korean export and procurement opportunities as an assessment rather than an announced programme.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Latvia holds its parliamentary election. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Yonhap publishes its report on the result, citing Reuters and AFP and saying vote counting is nearly complete. [ 1 ]
- Newsis publishes its report, citing Xinhua, putting United List at 35.4 percent and 42 seats. [ 2 ]
- Hankook Ilbo publishes its analysis of the election's security and cost agenda. [ 3 ]