Aramco CEO says oil system strained, inventory rebuild may take up to two years
Version 2: The update adds Asia Economy's report that G7 countries agreed on October 2 to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, that about 6 billion barrels of stored crude remain largely unusable, and that a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was warned by Iran's Revolutionary Guard and diverted, along with daily oil price moves.
In short
Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said the world oil supply system is already under pressure and that rebuilding depleted inventories could take up to two years, speaking in London on October 5. Nasser estimated that about 3 billion barrels of Middle East supply has been lost since the US-Iran war began and that more than 1 billion barrels have been drawn from reserves. Other oil executives at the same event warned of a refining shortfall and a demand recovery that may not arrive until 2028 or 2029, while Asia Economy reported oil prices moved in mixed directions as some Gulf exports resumed.
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Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said the world's oil supply system is already under pressure and that rebuilding depleted inventories could take up to two years, according to Yonhap's report from London and a short item by Newsis. Yonhap reported that Nasser spoke on October 5 at a London energy forum, his first in-person speech since the war between the United States and Iran began, and said “the system is already reaching its limits,” with the buffer of supply flexibility “frighteningly thin.” [ 1 , 2 ]
Nasser said oil pressure will intensify until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and confidence is restored, Yonhap reported, adding that even then it could take up to two years to meet demand while refilling stocks. He estimated the Middle East supply lost since the war at nearly 3 billion barrels — about half the crude and refined products that would have passed through the strait without the conflict — and said more than 1 billion barrels have been released from reserves. Refilling all inventories, he said, would be equivalent to an extra 2 million barrels per day of demand over the next 18 months, against world oil demand of about 100 million barrels per day. [ 1 ]
Asia Economy added that most of the inventories drawn down so far were commercial stock, and that of roughly 6 billion barrels of stored crude remaining worldwide, the volumes realistically usable at once are limited. It reported that the G7 agreed on October 2 to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves — a step taken as supply worries grew — and that the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20 percent of global crude and LNG supply, remains tense: UKMTO said a tanker was warned by Iran's Revolutionary Guard that it could be attacked if it did not turn back, and diverted. Some Gulf exports are recovering via the strait and Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline, Asia Economy said, with Brent's December contract up 0.7 percent at $102.92 a barrel and WTI's November contract down 0.4 percent at $90.76. [ 3 ]
Other executives at the same forum issued their own warnings, Yonhap reported. Kuwait Oil Company CEO Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah put the refined product shortfall caused by the war at 6 million barrels per day and said global refining capacity is not sufficient to replace volumes blocked in the Gulf. ConocoPhillips chairman Ryan Lance said global oil demand may not recover until 2028 or 2029, and Petronas CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik said the turmoil is likely to run to the end of the year and possibly into 2027. [ 1 ]
The outlets differed in scope. Newsis carried only Nasser's two-year inventory estimate, without a venue or figures. Yonhap gave the barrel estimates and the other executives' comments, while Asia Economy supplied the war timeline, the G7 release, the tanker warning and price moves. Yonhap and Asia Economy also gave different names for the London event — an energy information forum and an Energy Intelligence conference, respectively. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Why it matters
The warnings come from the head of the world's largest state oil company, and Asia Economy reported they followed a G7 agreement on October 2 to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves, indicating governments are already drawing on stockpiles. If Nasser's estimate holds, tight supply could persist for up to two years, with a stated effect on fuel and refining markets. The documents offer no independent forecasts or official data beyond the executives' own statements and one day of price moves.
Key facts
- Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said rebuilding depleted global oil inventories could take up to two years. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Nasser said the world oil supply system is already at its limits and that oil pressure will intensify until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and confidence is restored. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Nasser estimated the lost Middle East oil supply at close to 3 billion barrels, roughly half the crude and refined products that would have passed through the Strait of Hormuz without the war. [ 1 , 3 ]
- He said more than 1 billion barrels had been released from reserves, and that refilling all inventories would equal an extra 2 million barrels per day of demand over 18 months, against world demand of about 100 million barrels per day. [ 1 ]
- Asia Economy reported that about 6 billion barrels of stored crude remain worldwide but are not realistically usable immediately, and that most drawn-down inventories were commercial stock. [ 3 ]
- Asia Economy reported that G7 countries agreed on October 2 to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, and that a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was warned by Iran's Revolutionary Guard and diverted. [ 3 ]
- Kuwait Oil Company CEO Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah put the refined product shortfall at 6 million barrels per day, ConocoPhillips' Ryan Lance said demand may not recover until 2028 or 2029, and Petronas CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik said disruption could run to the end of the year and possibly into 2027. [ 1 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said rebuilding depleted global oil inventories could take as long as two years. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Nasser said supply pressure will deepen until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and confidence in the market is restored. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Nasser estimated the Middle East oil supply lost since the war began at close to 3 billion barrels. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Nasser said more than 1 billion barrels have been drawn from oil reserves. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Nasser delivered the remarks in London on October 5 at an energy conference. [ 1 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- The exact name of the London event where Nasser spoke Yonhap calls it an energy information forum, while Asia Economy calls it an Energy Intelligence conference.
- When the US-Iran war began and how it started Asia Economy says the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February, while Yonhap refers only to the war between the United States and Iran; no document gives a precise date.
- Whether the roughly 6 billion barrels of stored crude reported by Asia Economy can be tapped soon, and how much inventory is commercial versus emergency stock Only one document states these figures, and the other documents do not address them.
- The current operating status of the Strait of Hormuz Asia Economy reports a tanker was warned and diverted and that exports are showing some signs of recovery, but no document gives a definitive assessment or reopening timetable.
- The direction of oil markets beyond a single day Only Asia Economy reports prices, with Brent's December contract up 0.7% at $102.92 and WTI's November contract down 0.4% at $90.76.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- G7 countries agree to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves to stabilise the market, according to Asia Economy. [ 3 ]
- Aramco CEO Amin Nasser tells an energy conference in London that the oil system is at its limits and that rebuilding inventories could take up to two years, his first in-person speech since the US-Iran war began. [ 1 , 3 ]
- A tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz is warned by Iran's Revolutionary Guard that it could be attacked if it does not turn back, and diverts, according to UKMTO as cited by Asia Economy. [ 3 ]
- Yonhap publishes its report from London. [ 1 ]
- Newsis publishes a short item citing Nasser's two-year inventory estimate. [ 2 ]
- Asia Economy publishes its report adding the G7 reserve release, the Hormuz tanker warning and oil prices. [ 3 ]