Bloomberg: NATO developing “Theory of Victory” strategy for eastern flank
In short
NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Alexus Grinkevich, is developing a strategy called “Theory of Victory” for a rapid victory in the event of an alleged Russian attack on the alliance’s eastern flank, Bloomberg reported, citing the non-classified version of the document. Vedomosti and Kommersant, both citing the agency, said it is to be presented in Poland on 12 October and combines land forces with inexpensive drones and AI-assisted targeting. Russia has repeatedly said it does not intend to attack NATO countries, and Grinkevich himself said in June that intelligence showed Russia was not seeking a military conflict with NATO.
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NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Alexus Grinkevich, is developing a strategy for a rapid victory in the event of an alleged Russian attack on the alliance’s eastern flank, Bloomberg reported, citing the non-classified version of the document it reviewed. Vedomosti and Kommersant, both citing the agency, said the strategy is called “Theory of Victory” and is to be presented in Poland on 12 October. [ 2 , 4 ]
According to Bloomberg, the document is meant to set out the order of NATO’s actions if an incursion into alliance territory were to occur, and combines traditional armed forces with new technologies. Vedomosti reported that the first stage would involve land forces on the eastern flank, inexpensive drones, systems operated by a small number of personnel and AI-assisted targeting. The agency wrote that after gaining freedom of action, NATO forces would be able to strike the adversary’s command-and-control systems, and that some of these technologies are already covered by the eastern-flank deterrence initiative. [ 2 , 4 ]
Kommersant, also citing Bloomberg, reported that the plan would rely not only on emergency troop transfers but on infrastructure prepared in advance. It noted that in May 2026 it was reported that headquarters, depots for equipment and ammunition and air-defence, artillery and engineering units were planned for the Baltics, and that after drones entered Polish airspace in September 2025 NATO countries discussed additional means for the eastern flank, with defence ministers of three countries calling for urgent reinforcement of drone detection and interception. [ 4 ]
Vedomosti recalled that in August Politico reported NATO plans to create a single system of thousands of drones, sensors and satellites linked by artificial intelligence along the borders with Russia and Belarus, with AI to be used among other things for piloting and target acquisition while a human operator takes the final decision on a strike. [ 2 ]
Russian officials have repeatedly said Moscow does not intend to attack Western countries. RBC stated this in its report, while Vedomosti cited Vladimir Putin’s statement of 1 October that Moscow does not plan to attack other states either in the coming years or in the longer term, and Kommersant cited Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s mid-September remark that Russia is not going to attack Europe. Vedomosti also recalled that on 12 June Grinkevich himself said the intelligence he had reviewed showed Russia was not seeking a military conflict with NATO. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Vedomosti reported that in July NATO countries agreed on wording describing Russia as a “long-term threat” to the alliance’s security. Kommersant said the strategy’s aim was to clarify NATO’s actions in the event of a potential Russian attack on European countries, a possibility it said is increasingly discussed in Europe. RIA Novosti, in a brief item citing media, said NATO is preparing a “quick victory” strategy over Russia, without giving further detail. [ 1 , 2 , 4 ]
Why it matters
The document, if presented as reported on 12 October, would set out how NATO intends to defend its eastern flank using pre-positioned infrastructure and new technology rather than relying only on emergency troop transfers. It comes as European countries increasingly discuss the possibility of a Russian attack, while Moscow, NATO’s own commander in Europe and NATO’s July wording on Russia point in different directions. Only the non-classified part of the document has been described in the reports.
Key facts
- Bloomberg reported that NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Alexus Grinkevich, is developing a strategy called “Theory of Victory” for a rapid victory in the event of an alleged Russian attack on the alliance’s eastern flank. [ 2 , 4 ]
- The document, reviewed by Bloomberg in a non-classified version, is to be presented in Poland on 12 October. [ 2 , 4 ]
- The concept combines traditional armed forces with new technologies: eastern-flank land forces, inexpensive drones, systems run by few operators and AI-assisted targeting. [ 2 , 4 ]
- According to Bloomberg, after gaining freedom of action NATO forces would be able to strike the adversary’s command-and-control systems. [ 2 ]
- Russian authorities have repeatedly said Moscow does not plan to attack Western countries; Putin said so on 1 October and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in mid-September. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Grinkevich said on 12 June that, according to the intelligence he had studied, Russia was not seeking a military conflict with NATO. [ 2 ]
- In July, NATO countries agreed on wording describing Russia as a “long-term threat” to the alliance’s security. [ 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Bloomberg reported on the strategy and its content, as cited by Vedomosti, RBC and Kommersant. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The strategy is to be presented in Poland on 12 October. [ 2 , 4 ]
- The plan involves inexpensive drones and AI-assisted targeting alongside conventional land forces on the eastern flank. [ 2 , 4 ]
- Russian officials have repeatedly stated that Russia does not plan to attack Western countries. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Still unclear
- The contents of the classified part of the document. Both Vedomosti and Kommersant say Bloomberg reviewed only the non-classified version, so the rest is not described in the documents.
- The city in Poland where the strategy will be presented. The documents name Poland as the country but give no city.
- The likelihood of an attack on NATO’s eastern flank, which the documents describe as alleged and say is being increasingly discussed in Europe. No document provides evidence of such an attack; the Russian side denies any such intention.
- How the strategy relates to Grinkevich’s 12 June statement that Russia was not seeking a military conflict with NATO. The documents report both items without reconciling them.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- RIA Novosti publishes a headline item saying NATO is preparing a “quick victory” strategy over Russia, citing media. [ 1 ]
- Vedomosti reports Bloomberg’s account of the “Theory of Victory” strategy, its technology and the planned presentation in Poland. [ 2 ]
- RBC reports that Bloomberg has revealed the development of a NATO plan for a conflict with Russia, noting Moscow’s repeated statements that it does not plan to attack Western countries. [ 3 ]
- Kommersant reports that Grinkevich will present the “quick victory” strategy in Poland on 12 October. [ 4 ]