Typhoon 30 and rain front raise heavy-rain risk for Kyushu on 24-25 October
In short
Japanese outlets report that Typhoon 30, a large and violent storm with a central pressure of 900 hPa, is expected to approach the Sakishima Islands on 23-24 October and then turn northeast. The Fukuoka District Meteorological Observatory said warning-level heavy rain is possible in northern Kyushu around 24-25 October, with a storm-surge risk in Fukuoka Prefecture.
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Large and violent Typhoon 30 is forecast to approach the Sakishima Islands on 23-24 October and then turn northeast, Yahoo! News Japan reported on 21 October. At 3 pm that day the storm was moving west-northwest east of the Philippines with a central pressure of 900 hPa. The outlet said satellite images showed a clear eye and that the storm was at its peak development. [ 1 ]
According to Yahoo! News Japan, the typhoon is expected to move south of Okinawa on 22 October, keep very strong intensity as it nears the Sakishima Islands on 23-24 October, and enter the East China Sea at strong intensity on 24 October. It is then expected to turn gradually north-northeast to northeast and become an extratropical cyclone in the Tsushima Strait on 26 October. The outlet said it may approach Kyushu after Okinawa and that, although weaker, its effects need attention. [ 1 ]
The Fukuoka District Meteorological Observatory said on 21 October that warning-level heavy rain is possible in northern Kyushu around 24-25 October. It said a front is expected to move north across the region and warm, moist air around the typhoon will flow into it. It added that southerly winds are expected to strengthen around 25 October as the typhoon moves north, and that this coincides with spring tides. Depending on the typhoon, warning-level storm surge is possible in Fukuoka Prefecture, it said. In its early warning information it rated the chance of warning-level heavy rain and landslide risk in Fukuoka Prefecture on 24 and 25 October as medium, and the chance of storm surge on 25 October as medium. Nishi-Nippon Shimbun published a further report on 22 October about warning-level heavy rain in Fukuoka Prefecture on 24-25 October. [ 4 , 5 ]
Nippon TV News said the chance of the typhoon approaching Kyushu had risen compared with forecasts up to 20 October. It said the typhoon may approach Nagasaki Prefecture on 26 October and that warning-level heavy rain is possible on 23-24 October. TBS NEWS DIG said a front is expected to stall over northern Kyushu before the typhoon arrives, with rain increasing from the afternoon of 23 October. It said heavy rain is possible on 24 October even if the typhoon is still some distance away, and that rain is expected to continue on 25 October. [ 2 , 3 ]
TBS said Nagasaki lies inside the forecast circle for 3 pm on 26 October, when the storm is expected to be an extratropical cyclone, bringing a mass of rain clouds rather than strong wind and heavy rain. It added that the storm might not weaken much depending on its track. Yahoo! News Japan said the heavy-rain area in western Japan could widen depending on the track and gave a medium chance of heavy-rain warnings in Sanin and Hokuriku on 25 October. Outlets urged readers to check the latest information. [ 1 , 2 ]
Why it matters
Outlets and the Fukuoka observatory urge readers in Kyushu and elsewhere in western Japan to check the latest forecasts and prepare early. The forecast track and strength could still change, so the extent of the rain remains uncertain.
Key facts
- Typhoon 30 was large and violent, with a central pressure of 900 hPa at 3 pm on 21 October, moving west-northwest east of the Philippines. [ 1 ]
- It is forecast to approach the Sakishima Islands on 23-24 October, then move into the East China Sea and turn north-northeast to northeast. [ 1 ]
- The typhoon is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone on 26 October near the Tsushima Strait or Tsushima. [ 1 , 4 ]
- The Fukuoka District Meteorological Observatory said on 21 October that warning-level heavy rain is possible in northern Kyushu around 24-25 October. [ 4 ]
- The observatory said that, depending on the typhoon, warning-level storm surge is possible in Fukuoka Prefecture around 25 October, which coincides with spring tides. [ 4 ]
- Nippon TV News said the chance of the typhoon approaching Kyushu has risen compared with forecasts up to 20 October. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- How strongly the typhoon will affect Kyushu on and around 26 October. TBS said Nagasaki lies inside the forecast circle for 3 pm on 26 October but expected the storm to be an extratropical cyclone by then, though strength may not drop much depending on the track; Nippon TV said the typhoon may approach Nagasaki Prefecture on 26 October.
- Whether warning-level storm surge will occur in Fukuoka Prefecture. The observatory said it depends on the typhoon's movement.
- The extent of the heavy-rain area in western Japan. Yahoo! News Japan said it may widen depending on the typhoon's track.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Typhoon 30 was east of the Philippines, moving west-northwest, with a central pressure of 900 hPa (21 October). [ 1 ]
- Typhoon 30 was still east of the Philippines moving west-northwest (21 October). [ 4 ]
- Yahoo! News Japan published its forecast of possible warning-level heavy rain in Kyushu on 24 October. [ 1 ]
- Nishi-Nippon Shimbun reported the Fukuoka observatory's call for caution about heavy rain and storm surge. [ 4 ]
- Nishi-Nippon Shimbun reported a risk of warning-level heavy rain in Fukuoka Prefecture on 24-25 October (22 October). [ 5 ]