Middle East crude exports back above pre-war level, Kpler data cited by outlets show
In short
South Korean outlets, citing the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, report that Middle East crude exports averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week to 18 October, above the 23.3 million barrels before the Iran war. Bypass pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers near Oman are behind the recovery, while Hormuz volumes stand at 82% of the pre-war level.
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Middle East crude oil exports have returned to or passed their level before the Iran war, South Korean outlets reported on 21 and 22 October. Yonhap and Newsis cited a Wall Street Journal report of 20 October, which used data from ship-tracking firm Kpler. It said shipments averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week to 18 October, compared with 23.3 million barrels a day before the war. [ 1 , 2 ]
Korea Economic Daily cited the Financial Times of 21 October. It said Kpler counted the average daily crude exports of Gulf producers at 24.6 million barrels in the week to 18 October, which is 1.3 million barrels above the pre-war average of 23.3 million. On a seven-day moving average it was the highest level since mid-February. [ 3 ]
Yonhap said the figure combines shipments through the Strait of Hormuz with alternative routes. Saudi Arabia and the UAE sharply increased the volumes they send by pipeline around the strait, and Kpler estimated that last month about 40% of Gulf crude exports excluding Iran bypassed it. Shuttle voyages have also spread: tankers load inside the Persian Gulf, pass the danger zone with their position-tracking signals switched off, and hand the oil to long-haul vessels near Oman before returning. [ 1 ]
Yonhap said the shuttles are spreading because they are profitable. According to Kpler, Iraqi crude can be resold at $20 a barrel above the pre-war price, which means about $40 million in extra profit per very large tanker. Three shuttle runs would recover the $100 million price of a used tanker. One Chinese crew agency offered up to $25,000 for a single round trip of one to two weeks. [ 1 ]
The US military is providing air cover on a route along the Omani coast. Crude passing through the Strait of Hormuz averaged about 14 million barrels a day, 82% of the pre-war level. Yonhap said Iran's attacks on ships there continue, but the combination of air cover, bypass routes and sea transfers is keeping oil moving. [ 1 ]
Hamad Hussain (하마드 후세인), a senior commodities economist at Capital Economics, said the system for moving oil through the strait had become well established and exporters were more willing to take risks. He said Iran would have to act much more aggressively than now to control regional oil flows as it once did. Yonhap's account said Iran's weakened ability to deter passage is also reducing its leverage in talks with the United States. [ 1 ]
Korea Economic Daily gave a more cautious picture. It said transport through the strait is still disrupted, ship attacks are increasing, and signs of tightening supply of some oil products keep oil price unease alive. [ 3 ]
Why it matters
The reports suggest oil supply from the region has adapted to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Korea Economic Daily adds that attacks on ships are rising and some oil product supplies may tighten, so oil price unease continues.
Key facts
- The Wall Street Journal reported on 20 October, citing Kpler, that Middle East crude shipments averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week to 18 October. [ 1 , 2 ]
- The Financial Times, cited by Korea Economic Daily on 21 October, said Kpler counted Gulf producers' average exports at 24.6 million barrels a day in the same week. [ 3 ]
- The pre-war average was 23.3 million barrels a day. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Crude passing through the Strait of Hormuz averaged about 14 million barrels a day, 82% of the pre-war level, according to Yonhap. [ 1 ]
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE sharply increased volumes sent by pipeline around the strait. [ 1 ]
- Kpler estimated that last month about 40% of Gulf crude exports excluding Iran bypassed the strait. [ 1 ]
- The US military is providing air cover on a route along the Omani coast. [ 1 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- Whether the strait itself is returning to normal. Yonhap says a new transport system keeps oil flowing despite continuing Iranian attacks, while Korea Economic Daily says transport through the strait is still disrupted and ship attacks are increasing.
- The exact export figure for the week to 18 October. The Wall Street Journal figure, as relayed by Yonhap and Newsis, is above 24 million barrels a day; the Financial Times figure, as relayed by Korea Economic Daily, is 24.6 million. The documents do not say whether they measure the same set of countries.
- Profit figures for shuttle voyages and crew pay offers. They are attributed to Kpler and a Chinese crew agency in a single Yonhap article.