Japan September consumer confidence index falls for first time in five months
In short
Japan's Cabinet Office said its September consumer attitude index for households of two or more people, seasonally adjusted, fell 0.1 point from August to 35.4 — the first decline in five months. The office kept its base assessment that the index is “showing signs of picking up.” Two of the four components weakened, while 90.6% of respondents expected prices to rise over the next year.
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Japan's Cabinet Office said on October 5 that its September consumer attitude index for households of two or more people, seasonally adjusted, fell 0.1 point from the previous month to 35.4, the first decline in five months, Nikkei reported. The office kept its base assessment that the index is “showing signs of picking up.” Yomiuri Shimbun also reported the 0.1-point drop and the first decline in five months, and Tokyo Shimbun reported that consumer sentiment worsened for the first time in five months. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
The survey was conducted from September 2 to 24, according to Nikkei. A Cabinet Office official said the month-on-month movement was small and that it is difficult to identify a cause, including temporary fluctuations. [ 2 ]
Two of the four components of the index fell. “Livelihood” dropped 0.3 point and “judgment on the timing to buy durable goods” fell 0.2 point, both below the previous month for the first time in five months, Nikkei reported. “Growth in income” and “employment conditions” each rose 0.1 point. [ 2 ]
On prices, 90.6% of respondents said prices would rise over the next year, above 90% for the first time in two months, and 47.6% expected an increase of 5% or more, up 1.5 points from the previous month, according to Nikkei. The Cabinet Office official said food price increases may have affected the price outlook. Tokyo Shimbun, in its headline, said food and beverage price rises may have been a factor in the deterioration of consumer sentiment. [ 2 , 3 ]
Why it matters
The index is a monthly gauge of household spending sentiment used by the government in its economic assessment. The decline was small, and the Cabinet Office left its assessment unchanged, so the reading does not by itself signal a shift in the official view of consumption. Rising food prices could weigh on sentiment if the share expecting price increases keeps growing.
Key facts
- The September consumer attitude index (households of two or more people, seasonally adjusted) fell 0.1 point from the previous month to 35.4, the first decline in five months. [ 1 , 2 ]
- The Cabinet Office kept its base assessment at “showing signs of picking up.” [ 2 ]
- The survey period was September 2 to 24. [ 2 ]
- Of the index's four components, “livelihood” fell 0.3 point and “judgment on timing to buy durable goods” fell 0.2 point, both down for the first time in five months. [ 2 ]
- “Growth in income” and “employment conditions” each rose 0.1 point. [ 2 ]
- 90.6% of respondents said prices would rise in a year, exceeding 90% for the first time in two months, and 47.6% expected a rise of 5% or more, up 1.5 points. [ 2 ]
- A Cabinet Office official said food price increases may have affected the price outlook. [ 2 ]
- Tokyo Shimbun reported that food and beverage price increases may have been a factor in the deterioration of consumer sentiment. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- What caused the index to decline. The Cabinet Office official said the month-on-month move was small and that it is difficult to identify a cause including temporary fluctuations, and Tokyo Shimbun only said food and beverage price rises “may have” had an effect.
- The exact level of the index and the breakdown of its components. These figures appear only in Nikkei's report of the Cabinet Office survey; the other two documents carry only headlines.
- The Cabinet Office released the September consumer confidence survey on October 5. Reported by a single source so far
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Yomiuri Shimbun reports that the September consumer attitude index fell 0.1 point from the previous month, the first decline in five months. [ 1 ]
- Nikkei reports the index came in at 35.4 and that the Cabinet Office maintained its base assessment of “showing signs of picking up.” [ 2 ]
- Tokyo Shimbun reports consumer sentiment worsened for the first time in five months, pointing to food and beverage price increases as a possible factor. [ 3 ]