Japan's August coincident economic index falls 1.9 points to 118.7, first drop in six months
In short
Japan's Cabinet Office said its preliminary coincident economic index for August came in at 118.7, down 1.9 points from July — the first decline in six months. Nikkei reported the drop was the largest since January 2024, with typhoon and Kumamoto earthquake effects weighing on auto production and sluggish exports also pulling the index down. The Cabinet Office kept its base assessment that the economy is “improving”, Nikkei said, as the three-month moving average still rose.
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The Cabinet Office said on 7 October that its preliminary coincident index of economic indicators for August stood at 118.7 against a 2020 base of 100, down 1.9 points from the previous month. It was the first decline in six months, according to Yomiuri Shimbun, NHK News, Tokyo Shimbun and Nishi-Nippon Shimbun. Nikkei reported that the size of the fall was the largest since January 2024. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
Nikkei reported that the coincident index is made up of ten economic indicators and that all eight components available at the preliminary stage contributed to the decline. The effects of typhoons and the Kumamoto earthquake pushed down automobile production, weighing on the industrial production goods shipment index and the durable consumer goods shipment index, it said. Exports to the United States, Europe and Asia were also sluggish, lowering the export volume index. Tokyo Shimbun and Nishi-Nippon Shimbun likewise attributed the drop to the Kumamoto earthquake and typhoons. [ 2 , 4 , 5 ]
Nikkei reported that despite the monthly fall, the three-month moving average of the coincident index rose 0.13 points from the previous month, so the upward trend continued. The Cabinet Office kept its mechanically determined base assessment that the economy “is showing improvement”, it said, adding that the July coincident index had been 120.6, the highest since October 2018. [ 2 ]
The leading index, which indicates economic conditions two to three months ahead, rose 0.4 points from the previous month to 118.0, a second consecutive increase and the highest level since January 2014, according to Nikkei. It said the consumer attitude index and small and medium-sized companies' sales outlook contributed to the rise. [ 2 ]
Why it matters
The coincident index is the Cabinet Office's gauge of the economy's current state, so a first decline in six months signals that disaster-related production stoppages and soft external demand are showing up in official data. Nikkei reported the Cabinet Office still describes the economy as improving, meaning the reading is being treated as a temporary disruption rather than a turn in the trend.
Key facts
- The Cabinet Office's preliminary coincident index for August was 118.7, based on 2020 = 100. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
- The index fell 1.9 points from July, the first decline in six months. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
- Nikkei reported the size of the fall was the largest since January 2024. [ 2 ]
- The decline was attributed to typhoon and Kumamoto earthquake effects on automobile production, which pushed down the industrial production goods shipment index and the durable consumer goods shipment index. [ 2 , 4 , 5 ]
- Sluggish exports to the United States, Europe and Asia also lowered the export volume index, according to Nikkei. [ 2 ]
- Nikkei reported the three-month moving average of the coincident index rose 0.13 points from the previous month, and the Cabinet Office kept its base assessment that the economy “is showing improvement”. [ 2 ]
- The leading index, a gauge of the economy two to three months ahead, rose 0.4 points from the previous month to 118.0, a second straight increase and the highest level since January 2014, Nikkei reported. [ 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- That the 1.9-point fall was the largest since January 2024 Only Nikkei states this comparison; other documents give the size of the fall without historical context.
- The detail that all eight components available at the preliminary stage contributed to the decline Reported only by Nikkei; other documents do not break down the components.
- That July's coincident index was 120.6, the highest since October 2018, and the reasons behind the leading index's rise These figures and attributions appear only in Nikkei's report.
- Whether the index will decline again in September and how long the disaster-related drag will last No document gives a forward view on the next reading.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- Yomiuri Shimbun publishes that the August index fell 1.9 points to 118.7, the first decline in six months. [ 1 ]
- Nikkei publishes the Cabinet Office figures with detail on causes, components, the moving average and the leading index. [ 2 ]
- NHK News reports the preliminary coincident index at 118.7, down 1.9 points from July. [ 3 ]
- Tokyo Shimbun reports the six-month first decline, citing the Kumamoto earthquake and typhoons. [ 4 ]
- Nishi-Nippon Shimbun reports the same six-month decline, also citing the earthquake and typhoons. [ 5 ]