Analyst: Gears of War: E-Day sold 230,000 copies, 1.7 million played on Game Pass
In short
Gears of War: E-Day sold an estimated 230,000 copies, 168,000 on Steam and 62,000 on Xbox across console and PC, according to estimates from Alinea Analytics analyst Rhys Elliott. Elliott estimated that 1.7 million people played the game through Xbox Game Pass, about 722,000 of whom paid $30 for a Premium upgrade. Microsoft has not confirmed the figures.
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Gears of War: E-Day sold an estimated 230,000 copies, according to estimates from Alinea Analytics analyst Rhys Elliott, with 168,000 copies sold on Steam and 62,000 on Xbox across console and PC. Elliott estimated that 1.7 million people played the game through Xbox Game Pass instead of buying it outright, including about 722,000 who paid $30 for a Premium upgrade that let them play early. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Elliott said Xbox accounted for almost three-quarters of the game's estimated revenue, roughly $26 million of $37 million, against about $11 million on Steam, even though Steam accounted for most copies sold. "Including the 722K upgrades, nearly 950K people actually paid something for E-Day," he wrote, saying the 230,000 figure undersells the paying audience. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Elliott still described the figures as "soft numbers" at a time "when Xbox badly needs revenue wins" and said the $70 edition is functionally dead on Xbox. "In a world without day-one Game Pass, many of these folks would have bought E-Day at $70. They paid $30 for five days early access to something they don't own," he wrote. GameSpot quoted him adding that Xbox is, in effect, charging its most valuable customers the least. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Not all analysts frame it that way. GamesRadar+ reported that Circana games analyst Mat Piscatella, not in direct response to Alinea's report, said "it isn't straight cannibalism if a person paying for Game Pass plays an offered game through the service." The outlet also said SteamDB ownership estimates of 171,000 to 195,000 support the Steam figure, while noting such estimates are fallible and volatile shortly after launch. [ 3 ]
Microsoft has not confirmed the numbers, and GamesRadar+ said it had asked the company for comment. The sales estimates contrast with the game's reviews: Polygon reported scores of 88 on Metacritic and 87 on OpenCritic, making it the best-reviewed entry in the franchise in more than a decade. [ 1 , 3 ]
The game is the latest entry in The Coalition's third-person shooter series and a prequel featuring Marcus Fenix and Dominic Santiago during Emergence Day. Polygon said it launched on Oct. 6 on Xbox Series X and PC, while GamesRadar+ referred to an October 1 launch. [ 1 , 3 ]
Why it matters
The estimates raise questions about whether day-one Game Pass releases undermine Microsoft's ability to sell its games at full price, Polygon reported. Elliott said the $70 edition is "functionally dead on Xbox", while Circana analyst Mat Piscatella argued that playing a game through a paid subscription is not straight cannibalism.
Key facts
- Alinea Analytics estimated that Gears of War: E-Day sold about 230,000 copies: 168,000 on Steam and 62,000 on Xbox across console and PC. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- An estimated 1.7 million people played the game through Xbox Game Pass. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- About 722,000 Game Pass players paid for the $30 Premium upgrade that gave early access. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Elliott said Xbox accounted for almost three-quarters of estimated revenue, roughly $26 million of $37 million, versus about $11 million on Steam. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Elliott said nearly 950,000 people paid something for the game when the upgrades are included. [ 2 , 3 ]
- The game scored 88 on Metacritic and 87 on OpenCritic, according to Polygon. [ 1 ]
- Microsoft has not confirmed the figures. [ 1 , 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Alinea Analytics estimated about 230,000 copies sold, 168,000 on Steam and 62,000 on Xbox. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Elliott estimated 1.7 million Game Pass players, including about 722,000 who bought the Premium upgrade. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- The Premium upgrade cost $30. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Elliott said Xbox accounted for nearly three-quarters of the estimated revenue despite Steam accounting for most copies sold. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Total estimated revenue was around $37 million. [ 2 , 3 ]
- Elliott said nearly 950,000 people paid something for the game and that the $70 edition is functionally dead on Xbox. [ 2 , 3 ]
- The figures are unconfirmed estimates. [ 1 , 3 ]
Still unclear
- The game's launch date. Polygon says the game launched on Oct. 6, while GamesRadar+ refers to an October 1 launch.
- Microsoft's view of the figures and its expectations for the game. Microsoft has not confirmed the estimates; GamesRadar+ said it had asked the company for comment.
- Whether Game Pass is cannibalising sales. Elliott said Game Pass cannibalised sales, while Circana's Mat Piscatella said it isn't straight cannibalism if a Game Pass subscriber plays an offered game through the service.
- Steam ownership numbers. GamesRadar+ cited SteamDB estimates of 171,000 to 195,000 owners, describing such estimates as fallible and volatile shortly after launch.