Kpler: Middle East crude exports top pre-war levels on four days in late September
In short
Kpler preliminary data show Middle East crude exports rose above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, reaching 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels per day on Sept 24 and Sept 27-29, against a pre-war average of 18 million bpd. Domestic outlets, citing Reuters and Xinhua, note the figures were recorded even though ships were attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The data exclude vessels that switched off their AIS transponders.
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Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September, according to preliminary data from ship-tracking firm Kpler, as reported by domestic outlets citing Reuters and Xinhua. The reports note that the higher flows were recorded even though ships were attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
Kpler's preliminary figures show exports rose to between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day on Sept 24 and on Sept 27-29. In the year before the Iran war, from March 2025 to February this year, the region's exports averaged 18 million barrels per day. The seven-day moving average of crude exports stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on Oct 1, according to the data. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
The figures cover shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, exports from crude terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, according to cnBeta and Yicai. All the reports state that the data exclude volumes carried by vessels that switched off their Automatic Identification System transponders to avoid monitoring. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
cnBeta, a technology outlet, added figures not carried by the other documents: total shipments of crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gaseous liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day in the week to Sept 30, and LNG carriers passing out through the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to their highest monthly count since February. [ 1 ]
The reports give no details of the attacks on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, and no document says what effect, if any, they had on the export volumes. Xinhua's own report consists of a headline stating that Kpler data show exports above pre-war levels at the end of September. [ 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
Why it matters
The figures suggest Middle East crude flows have recovered past levels seen before the Iran war despite attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil trade. For readers outside the region, the volumes and the caveat about AIS-disabled tankers shape how much of the region's supply can be counted on. All documents rest on a single data provider's preliminary figures, so the picture is not independently verified.
Key facts
- Kpler preliminary data show Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September, according to domestic reports citing Reuters and Xinhua. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
- Exports rose to between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day on Sept 24 and Sept 27-29, the data show. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Before the Iran war, from March 2025 to February this year, the region's exports averaged 18 million barrels per day. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The seven-day moving average of crude exports stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on Oct 1. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Figures cover shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. [ 1 , 3 ]
- The data do not include vessels that turned off their Automatic Identification System transponders. [ 1 , 2 , 4 ]
- The reports say ships were attacked while crossing the Strait of Hormuz, without giving details of the incidents. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- cnBeta reported that total shipments of crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gaseous liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day in the week to Sept 30, and that LNG carriers passing through Hormuz hit their highest monthly count since February. [ 1 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Kpler data show Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
- Exports rose to 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels per day on Sept 24 and Sept 27-29. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The pre-war average, from March 2025 to February this year, was 18 million barrels per day. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- The data exclude volumes carried by vessels that switched off their AIS transponders. [ 1 , 2 , 4 ]
- Ships were attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to the reports. [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Still unclear
- Who carried out the attacks on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, and when they occurred. The documents mention that ships were attacked but give no details, timing or attribution, and no outlet cites a source for the incidents beyond the reference itself.
- Whether the higher export levels were sustained after the Sept 27-29 window or are a temporary spike. Kpler's figures are described as preliminary and cover specific days; no document reports later volumes.
- The total-liquids figure for the week to Sept 30 and the rise in LNG carriers through Hormuz. These appear only in cnBeta, a tier-3 tech outlet, and are not carried by the other documents.
- Anything beyond the headline of the Xinhua report. Xinhua's document carries only a headline with no article text or summary, so its full framing cannot be checked.
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- cnBeta publishes the Kpler export figures, including the total-liquids and LNG detail. [ 1 ]
- CLS reports Kpler's data, citing Reuters. [ 2 ]
- Yicai reports the same figures, citing Xinhua and Reuters. [ 3 ]
- Jiemian carries the report, citing Xinhua. [ 4 ]
- Xinhua publishes a headline on the Kpler data. [ 5 ]