Russia's central bank expects 2026 GDP growth slightly below last year's
In short
Russia's GDP growth for 2026 as a whole will be slightly less than a year earlier, Central Bank Deputy Chairman Alexei Zabotkin said at Federation Council hearings; he did not name a specific figure. He cited the economy running at full employment for a third year and the temporary loss of production and logistics capacity in several sectors in recent months.
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Central Bank Deputy Chairman Alexei Zabotkin said on 5 October that Russia's GDP growth for 2026 as a whole will be “slightly less” than the year before, speaking at hearings in the Federation Council. He did not name a specific figure. TASS reported the same expectation in its headline, without further detail. [ 1 , 2 ]
Zabotkin said the Russian economy has been in a state of full employment for a third year, which he said affects its growth rate, and he called this one of the reasons for the lower growth. A second reason, he said, was the “temporary loss of production and logistics capacity in a number of sectors, which happened in recent months”. [ 2 ]
On forecasts, Kommersant reported that the Central Bank worsened its estimates in a new consensus forecast in September, lowering its 2027 GDP growth forecast from 1.3% to 1.2%. The Economy Ministry expects GDP growth of 0.6% this year and then a gradual acceleration, from 1.4% in 2027 to 2.4% in 2029, the newspaper said. [ 2 ]
Kommersant wrote that the limit on Russian economic growth in 2026 is tied to the possibility of increasing output: expanding supply runs up against production capacity that does not increase instantly, especially given a shortage of labour resources and the temporary loss of part of production and logistics capacity. It added that keeping investment at the levels already reached is sufficient for continued growth of the economy and GDP. [ 2 ]
Why it matters
The Central Bank's expectation points to slower Russian growth next year, though no figure was given. It comes after the bank lowered its 2027 growth forecast in September, while the Economy Ministry expects only 0.6% growth this year, suggesting official expectations of a modest near-term trajectory.
Key facts
- Central Bank Deputy Chairman Alexei Zabotkin said Russia's GDP growth for 2026 as a whole will be “slightly less” than the previous year's. [ 1 , 2 ]
- Zabotkin did not name a specific figure for 2026 growth. [ 2 ]
- He made the statement at hearings in the Federation Council. [ 2 ]
- He cited the Russian economy being at full employment for a third year as one reason for slower growth. [ 2 ]
- He also cited the temporary loss of production and logistics capacity in a number of sectors over recent months. [ 2 ]
- The Central Bank lowered its 2027 GDP growth forecast from 1.3% to 1.2% in its September consensus forecast. [ 2 ]
- The Economy Ministry expects GDP growth of 0.6% this year, accelerating from 1.4% in 2027 to 2.4% in 2029. [ 2 ]
Confirmed by several sources
Still unclear
- The specific 2026 GDP growth figure. Zabotkin did not name a figure, and neither document gives a number for 2026.
- Whether the factors cited by the Central Bank are the only reasons for the expected slowdown. Only one outlet, Kommersant, reports the reasons, and it attributes them to a single official.