Russia's finance minister forecasts 1.4% growth in real incomes in 2027
In short
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said real incomes of the Russian population will grow 1.4% in 2027, speaking at parliamentary hearings in the Federation Council. He said growth would average 2.5% a year in the following two years. Vedomosti noted the 2027 forecast is below the 2.1% the Ministry of Economic Development projected in May, and that income growth had already slowed to 1.5% year-on-year in January–June 2026 from 8.7% a year earlier.
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Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said real incomes of the population will grow 1.4% in 2027, speaking at parliamentary hearings in the Federation Council. He said that in the following two years the indicator would rise by an average of 2.5% a year. The statement was reported by the state outlets TASS and RIA Novosti and by the business outlets Vedomosti and Kommersant. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
Siluanov linked the projected rise in welfare to a reduced effect of the budget on money supply, the development of private lending and the economy returning to a growth trajectory. “This is important for maintaining macroeconomic stability, lowering inflation, lowering interest rates and raising the welfare of citizens,” the minister said, according to Kommersant, which cited TASS. [ 4 ]
Vedomosti noted that real disposable incomes rose 1.5% year-on-year in January–June 2026, according to Rosstat data and the outlet's own calculations, a slowdown from 8.7% growth in the same period of 2025. In May, the Ministry of Economic Development forecast 2.1% growth in real disposable incomes for 2027, Vedomosti reported. The government submitted the draft federal budget for 2027–2029 to the State Duma on Sept 30, with the base macro forecast assuming GDP growth of 1.4% in 2027, accelerating to 2.4% in 2029. [ 2 ]
Kommersant reported further 2027 figures given at the hearings: the minimum wage will rise to 28,935 rubles and the subsistence minimum will be 20,227 rubles. Pensions in the same year will be indexed twice, by 6.8% from Feb 1 and by an additional 3.3% for the insurance part from April 1. [ 4 ]
Kommersant said the logic of the forecast rests on a smaller budget deficit easing inflationary pressure and giving the Bank of Russia room to loosen monetary policy, with lower inflation and cheaper credit allowing nominal income growth to be eroded less by rising prices. The outlet said the main constraint is the cost of financing the deficit, and recalled that in April 2025 a revision of budget parameters cut the federal revenue forecast and raised the expected deficit from 0.5% to 1.7% of GDP. [ 4 ]
Why it matters
The forecast sits alongside the draft federal budget for 2027–2029 that the government submitted to the State Duma on Sept 30, so it frames expectations for household incomes, the minimum wage and pensions over the next three years. Kommersant reported the projection rests on a smaller budget deficit easing inflation and allowing the Bank of Russia to lower interest rates, while noting the cost of financing the deficit as a constraint.
Key facts
- Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said real incomes of the population will grow 1.4% in 2027 [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Siluanov said real incomes will grow by an average of 2.5% a year in the following two years [ 2 , 4 ]
- Siluanov made the statement at parliamentary hearings in the Federation Council [ 2 , 4 ]
- Real disposable incomes rose 1.5% year-on-year in January–June 2026, per Rosstat data and Vedomosti calculations, after 8.7% growth in the same period of 2025 [ 2 ]
- In May the Ministry of Economic Development forecast 2.1% growth in real disposable incomes for 2027 [ 2 ]
- The government submitted the draft federal budget for 2027–2029 to the State Duma on Sept 30, with the base macro forecast assuming GDP growth of 1.4% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2029 [ 2 ]
- In 2027 the minimum wage will rise to 28,935 rubles and the subsistence minimum will be 20,227 rubles, with pensions indexed twice, by 6.8% from Feb 1 and an additional 3.3% for the insurance part from April 1 [ 4 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said real incomes of the population will grow by 1.4% in 2027 [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]
- Siluanov said the indicator will rise by an average of 2.5% a year in the following two years [ 2 , 4 ]
- Siluanov made the statement at parliamentary hearings in the Federation Council [ 2 , 4 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the May forecast of 2.1% growth in real disposable incomes for 2027 was revised or replaced by the 1.4% figure Only Vedomosti reports the May Ministry of Economic Development forecast, and none of the documents explains the difference between the two figures
- How the April 2025 revision of budget parameters affects the current forecast Only Kommersant mentions the earlier revision and the deficit rising from 0.5% to 1.7% of GDP, and does not link it directly to the 2027 income projection
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- TASS reports Siluanov's forecast that real incomes will grow 1.4% in 2027 [ 1 ]
- Vedomosti reports the 1.4% figure, the 2.5% average for the following two years and January–June 2026 income growth of 1.5% [ 2 ]
- RIA Novosti reports Siluanov's forecast for real income growth in 2027 [ 3 ]
- Kommersant reports the Federation Council hearings, the 2027 wage and pension figures and the budget logic behind the forecast [ 4 ]