Siluanov says ministry, business reached compromise on mining windfall tax
In short
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the finance ministry and business reached a compromise on a windfall tax on the mining and metals sector, with a mechanism to smooth price-driven spikes in the payment. The amendments, now in the State Duma, would tax the excess of mineral prices in 2026-2028 over a 2025 base, with metal and fertilizer producers paying up to 30% if prices rise 10% or more. The RSPP business lobby had criticised the bill as effectively retroactive; the two sides give different budget estimates.
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Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the finance ministry and business had reached a compromise on a windfall tax on the mining and metals sector. “We did very good work, met with business and found a compromise on the excess-income tax. It worried them most,” Siluanov told journalists, in quotes carried by Interfax and Kommersant. TASS reported the compromise was with the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), while RIA Novosti said it was reached with business. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 5 ]
According to the minister, the amendments to the Tax Code now before the State Duma smooth out the consequences of sharp price changes for future payers. He said the mechanism was designed so that companies facing spikes in a single calendar year, meaning a large potential payment, would have them levelled out. RBC reported that the amendments sent to the Duma had undergone important changes. [ 3 , 4 , 6 ]
Under the bill, the tax is calculated as the volume of mineral extracted multiplied by the excess of its average price in 2026, 2027 and 2028 over the average 2025 price, with the 2025 base price indexed at 1.1 and 1.21 for 2027 and 2028. No tax is levied if price growth is less than 10%. Producers of metals and fertilizers could pay up to 30% of excess income for 2026–2028 if average world mineral prices each year are 10% above the 2025 base in ruble terms, Interfax reported. [ 3 ]
The measure would apply to ores of ferrous metals including iron, manganese and chromium; non-ferrous metals including aluminium, copper, nickel, cobalt, lead, zinc, tin, tungsten, molybdenum, antimony and magnesium; multi-component complex ores; mining and chemical non-metallic raw materials such as apatite-nepheline, phosphorite, potash and boron ores; mining and chemical raw materials containing metals; and semi-products containing precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum and palladium, according to Interfax. [ 3 ]
The RSPP had criticised the bill, which it said would levy the tax on the mining industry in 2027–2029; the ministry estimated the measure would add 683 billion rubles to the budget, Kommersant reported. The union said the tax was effectively introduced retroactively, because the base for 2027 is calculated from the excess of mineral prices in the already completed 2026 over base 2025 prices, and that extending a mandatory payment to a past period contradicts fundamental principles of taxation since companies could not have accounted for it in advance. Siluanov did not comment on the RSPP letter criticising the bill, which became known after the government amendments were submitted to parliament, Interfax reported. [ 3 , 5 ]
The finance ministry submitted the bill to the government on 24 September, Vedomosti reported. Experts surveyed by the newspaper said it could bring the budget 100–200 billion rubles, while Gazprombank analysts warned on 17 April that paying the windfall tax in 2026 would reduce the combined net profit of Russian public companies by an average of 10%, or 450–500 billion rubles. [ 4 ]
Kommersant noted that in 2021 a majority in the RSPP believed a retrospective windfall tax would hit the investment climate, and that a Bloomberg Economics economist said in 2023 that regularly applying excess-profit taxes could discourage capital allocation and investment within the economy. [ 5 ]
Why it matters
The bill determines how much mining, metals and fertilizer companies pay from 2027, with the finance ministry estimating 683 billion rubles for the budget and experts surveyed by Vedomosti estimating 100–200 billion. The RSPP argues the tax is effectively retroactive, and analysts cited by Vedomosti expect the payment to cut Russian public companies' combined net profit. Kommersant recalled that in 2021 a majority in the RSPP believed a retrospective windfall tax would hurt the investment climate, and that a Bloomberg Economics economist said in 2023 that regular excess-profit taxes could discourage investment.
Key facts
- Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the finance ministry and business reached a compromise on the windfall tax on the mining and metals sector. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 ]
- The amendments to the Tax Code submitted to the State Duma include a mechanism that smooths the effect of sharp price changes for future payers. [ 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 ]
- Under the bill, the tax is calculated as the volume of mineral extracted multiplied by the excess of its average price in 2026, 2027 and 2028 over the average 2025 price, indexed at 1.1 and 1.21 for 2027 and 2028; there is no tax if price growth is under 10%. [ 3 ]
- Metal and fertilizer producers could pay up to 30% of excess income for 2026–2028 if average world mineral prices each year are 10% above the 2025 base in ruble terms. [ 3 ]
- The RSPP said the tax is effectively introduced retroactively and contradicts fundamental principles of taxation; the finance ministry estimated the measure would add 683 billion rubles to the budget. [ 5 ]
- Experts surveyed by Vedomosti estimated the tax could bring the budget 100–200 billion rubles, and Gazprombank analysts warned that paying it in 2026 would cut Russian public companies' combined net profit by an average of 10%, or 450–500 billion rubles. [ 4 ]
- Siluanov did not comment on the RSPP letter criticising the bill, which became known after the government amendments were submitted to parliament. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Anton Siluanov is Russia's finance minister and made the statement about the compromise to journalists. [ 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]
- Siluanov said the finance ministry and business reached a compromise on the windfall tax for the mining and metals sector. [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 ]
- The amendments submitted to the State Duma smooth out sharp changes in the tax payment caused by price swings for future payers. [ 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 ]
- The RSPP took part in the talks with the finance ministry and had criticised the bill. [ 1 , 5 ]
Still unclear
- Whether the compromise resolves the RSPP's objections to the bill. TASS, RIA Novosti and Kommersant report a compromise with business or the RSPP, while Kommersant also details the union's criticism and Interfax notes Siluanov declined to comment on the RSPP letter; the documents do not say the criticism was withdrawn.
- The size of the budget effect: 683 billion rubles in the finance ministry's estimate and 100–200 billion rubles in the estimate of experts surveyed by Vedomosti. Two different figures from different sources appear in the documents and are not reconciled.
- Whether the tax is retroactive, as the RSPP says, or whether the smoothing mechanism removes that effect, as the ministry says. Both positions are reported; neither is independently confirmed by the other side.
- The complete list of minerals covered by the tax. The Interfax article text ends mid-list, at semi-products containing one or more precious metals, so the full scope is not stated.
- The finance ministry submitted the bill to the government on 24 September. Reported by a single source so far
What local media are saying
Timeline, local time
- TASS reports that the finance ministry and the RSPP reached a compromise on the mining windfall tax. [ 1 ]
- RIA Novosti reports Siluanov's statement about a compromise with business. [ 2 ]
- Interfax publishes Siluanov's remarks and details of the bill's calculation mechanism and mineral list. [ 3 ]
- Vedomosti adds the 24 September submission of the bill and revenue estimates from experts and Gazprombank analysts. [ 4 ]
- Kommersant reports the RSPP's criticism of the bill and the ministry's 683 billion ruble estimate. [ 5 ]
- RBC reports that the amendments sent to the State Duma underwent important changes. [ 6 ]