Korea Insurance Research Institute forecasts 3.5% insurance industry growth in 2027
In short
The Korea Insurance Research Institute (보험연구원) forecast that insurance industry growth will fall to 3.5% next year from an expected 8.0% this year. It put total premiums at 299 trillion won. The institute said first-half profit gains came from investment results, not core insurance business.
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The Korea Insurance Research Institute (보험연구원) forecast that insurance industry growth in 2027 will be 3.5%, less than half of the 8.0% expected this year. It made the forecast at a seminar on 22 October titled "2027 Insurance Industry Outlook and Tasks", which Newsis said was held at the Conrad Hotel in Yeouido, Seoul. Yonhap noted that growth was 11.0% in 2025, so the decline continues. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Total premiums are forecast at 299 trillion won, up 3.5% from this year's expected 289 trillion won. Life insurance premium income is expected to rise 2.3%, compared with 8.8% expected this year, as protection insurance leads growth while savings, variable and retirement pension products decline. Non-life direct premiums are forecast to rise 4.5%, compared with 7.2% this year, led by long-term non-life insurance. Yonhap reported that excluding retirement pensions the figures would be 4.0% for life and 5.0% for non-life, and that auto insurance premiums are seen rising 3.0%. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Asia Economy reported that in the first half, life insurers' net income rose 18% to 3.9 trillion won and non-life insurers' rose 5% to 4.5 trillion won. Profitability and soundness indicators, including CSM and the K-ICS ratio, improved from a year earlier. According to the institute's analysis, however, the improvement came from investment gains rather than core insurance business. The risk margin result has stayed negative since the fourth quarter of 2024 in both sectors, and retained earnings grew only slightly. [ 1 , 2 ]
Insurance profit accounted for 40.1% of operating profit at life insurers and 61.5% at non-life insurers. The institute also pointed to concentration in products and sales channels, with life insurers relying on no- or low-surrender-value products, non-life insurers on illness and injury insurance, and sales focused on face-to-face and GA channels, which has led to cost competition centred on sales promotion expenses. [ 1 , 2 ]
The institute said regulations due next year, including the commission system overhaul, the GA operational risk assessment system, the basic capital ratio system and actuarial assumption upgrades, could limit insurers' growth capacity in the short term. It recommended that insurers strengthen the earnings base of existing products while moving resources to retirement income, health and care, and corporate risk. Institute president Kim Heon-su (김헌수) said in his opening remarks that insurers should build risk management capacity to close protection gaps and achieve growth that consumers can feel, according to Yonhap. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
Why it matters
The institute said regulatory changes due next year could limit insurers' growth capacity in the short term. It advised insurers to strengthen the earnings base of existing products and move resources to new growth areas.
Key facts
- The institute forecast 2027 insurance industry growth of 3.5%, against an expected 8.0% this year and 11.0% in 2025. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Total premiums are forecast at 299 trillion won, up 3.5% from this year's expected 289 trillion won. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Life insurance premium income is forecast to rise 2.3% and non-life direct premiums 4.5%. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- In the first half, life insurers' net income rose 18% to 3.9 trillion won and non-life insurers' rose 5% to 4.5 trillion won. [ 1 ]
- Insurance profit made up 40.1% of operating profit for life insurers and 61.5% for non-life insurers. [ 1 , 2 ]
- The institute said 89% of the premium increase would be concentrated in life protection insurance and non-life long-term insurance. [ 3 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- The institute forecast 3.5% growth for the insurance industry next year, less than half of the 8.0% expected this year, with total premiums of 299 trillion won. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Life insurance premium income is forecast to grow 2.3% and non-life direct premiums 4.5%. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- Regulatory changes due next year, including the commission system overhaul, the GA operational risk assessment system, the basic capital ratio system and actuarial assumption upgrades, could limit insurers' growth capacity. [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]
- First-half profit and soundness indicators improved, but the institute said the gains came from investment results rather than core insurance business. [ 1 , 2 ]
Still unclear
- How far the planned regulations will affect insurers' growth next year. The institute said only that they could limit growth capacity in the short term or raise capital-building burdens.
- Whether the contract service margin (CSM) will fall. Only one outlet reports the institute's view that it may decrease because of assumption changes and differences from actual experience.