Japan Meteorological Agency head apologises for cancelled earthquake early warning
In short
Japan Meteorological Agency chief Ryuichi Nomura said on 21 October that the agency caused "inconvenience and burden" to many people by cancelling an earthquake early warning right after issuing it. The warning of 16 October, issued at 12:40 and withdrawn at 12:48, overestimated the quake's magnitude as 9.9. Nomura said the cause is still under investigation.
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Ryuichi Nomura, head of the Japan Meteorological Agency, said at a regular press conference on 21 October that the agency caused "inconvenience and burden" to many people when it cancelled an earthquake early warning immediately after issuing it. He said he takes the matter seriously. TBS NEWS DIG reported that he apologised. [ 1 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 7 ]
According to Livedoor News and Sankei Shimbun, the warning was issued at 12:40 on 16 October. It said an earthquake with a maximum intensity of 7 would occur from Hokkaido to the Tokai region, and it was cancelled at 12:48. The agency said it overestimated the magnitude as 9.9. [ 1 , 3 ]
TBS NEWS DIG reported that the warning said a magnitude 9.9 earthquake had occurred in the Kuril Islands, and urged caution over strong shaking across a wide area from Hokkaido to the Tokai region. The quake that actually occurred was magnitude 6.9 near the Kamchatka Peninsula, the outlet said. In Japan, a maximum intensity of 1 was observed in Hakodate, Hokkaido, and no location recorded intensity 2 or above. [ 5 ]
TBS NEWS DIG said Nomura again explained two causes: a flaw in part of the method for predicting magnitude and intensity, and the use of data from observation points far from the epicentre, which should not have been used, in calculating the magnitude. He said the agency would examine the program to find out since when such data had been used and clarify the detailed cause. Nippon TV News also reported that he said the investigation would continue. [ 5 , 7 ]
Nomura said that because the early warning conveys the possibility of strong shaking in a short time, it is difficult to eliminate false alerts completely. TBS NEWS DIG quoted him as saying the system issues information automatically without human judgment. He said that in recent years strong shaking has occurred in more than 90 percent of cases when an alert was issued, and he asked people who see or hear an alert to act to protect themselves. [ 1 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 7 ]
NHK's headline said Nomura called the erroneous announcement very regrettable and that countermeasures would be considered. Its summary, which breaks off mid-sentence, said that measures taken after past cases had again dropped out. [ 6 ]
Why it matters
The alert covered a wide area from Hokkaido to the Tokai region, and the agency head apologised publicly for it. Nomura also said false alerts cannot be eliminated completely and urged people to take protective action when they see or hear an alert.
Key facts
- Japan Meteorological Agency head Ryuichi Nomura (野村竜一) said at a regular press conference on 21 October that the agency caused inconvenience and burden to many people and takes it seriously. [ 1 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 7 ]
- The early warning was issued at 12:40 on 16 October, saying an earthquake of up to intensity 7 would strike from Hokkaido to the Tokai region, and was cancelled at 12:48. [ 1 , 3 ]
- The agency said it overestimated the earthquake's magnitude as 9.9. [ 1 , 3 ]
- TBS NEWS DIG reported that the actual quake was magnitude 6.9 near the Kamchatka Peninsula, with a maximum intensity of 1 observed in Hakodate, Hokkaido, and nowhere at intensity 2 or above. [ 5 ]
- Nomura said the false alert came from a flaw in part of the method for predicting magnitude and intensity, and from the use of data from observation points far from the epicentre that should not have been used in the magnitude calculation. [ 5 ]
- Nomura said that in recent years strong shaking has occurred in more than 90 percent of cases when an alert was issued. [ 1 , 3 , 4 , 7 ]
Confirmed by several sources
- Nomura said at the 21 October press conference that the agency caused much inconvenience and burden and takes the matter seriously. [ 1 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 7 ]
- The early warning was issued at 12:40 on 16 October and cancelled at 12:48, and the magnitude was overestimated as 9.9. [ 1 , 3 ]
- Nomura said it is difficult to eliminate false alerts completely given that the warning conveys the possibility of strong shaking in a short time. [ 1 , 3 , 4 ]
- Nomura urged people who see or hear an alert to act to protect themselves, saying strong shaking has occurred in more than 90 percent of cases in recent years. [ 1 , 3 , 4 , 7 ]
- Nomura said the detailed cause is still being investigated. [ 5 , 7 ]
Still unclear
- Since when data from observation points that should not have been used was being used in the magnitude calculation. Nomura said the agency would examine the program to find out, according to TBS NEWS DIG.
- The full detail of the cause of the false alert. TBS NEWS DIG and Nippon TV News reported that the investigation is continuing.
- What exactly Nomura said about measures taken after past cases having dropped out again. Only NHK's headline and a truncated summary are available, and the summary breaks off mid-sentence.
- The actual magnitude of 6.9 and the maximum observed intensity of 1. Only TBS NEWS DIG gives these figures.